Toronto's mayoral race has narrowed to a two-person contest between Mayor Olivia Chow and former city councillor Brad Bradford, after candidate Chris Alexander dropped out on Oct. 6 just hours before a major debate, according to Global News.
Alexander announced he was revoking his candidacy the morning of Oct. 6. That evening's debate at Toronto Metropolitan University became an unexpected one-on-one face-off between Chow and Bradford, who sharpened their criticisms of each other as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Why Alexander stepped aside
Alexander, best known as federal immigration minister in Stephen Harper's cabinet from 2013 to 2015, said low polling numbers left him no clear route to victory.
"Our path to success, it became clear to me over this weekend, was not obvious and perhaps not there at all," Alexander told reporters Tuesday.
He said polls showed his support had remained static since the campaign began, and he wanted to step back before advance voting started. A Liaison Strategies poll published Tuesday, before his withdrawal, put him at nine per cent, with Chow at 48 per cent and Bradford at 40 per cent.
Myer Siemiatycki, a professor emeritus of politics at Toronto Metropolitan University, said Alexander "just could not get the traction he needed to be a serious contender."
A sharper tone on the debate stage
The remaining candidates fielded questions on housing, affordability, transit and public safety. Chow was noticeably more confrontational toward Bradford than in previous weeks, said Zachary Spicer, an associate professor at York University's school of public policy and administration.
Discussing transit and cycling, Chow accused Bradford of previously supporting fare increases and backing Premier Doug Ford's move to remove the city's bike lanes. "How could anyone trust you?" she said. Bradford replied that Chow was "fearmongering."
Spicer said the race is now more of an evaluation of Chow's first term, and that she will need to be more aggressive in the coming weeks to hold onto the mayor's office. Bradford, he said, does not need to win on every policy point, but must make the case the city is heading in the wrong direction.
Where Alexander's votes go
There is uncertainty about which candidate will pick up Alexander's supporters. Siemiatycki said the outcome "could be very good news for Brad Bradford because, like Bradford, Alexander's campaign was predicated on time for a change."
But he noted some voters uncomfortable with Bradford's political style could move to Chow instead. "His votes are up for grabs," Siemiatycki said.
Because Alexander withdrew late in the race, his name will still appear on the ballot. Siemiatycki warned that many residents who are not following the race closely may not realize he has stepped aside.
He said the remaining two-plus weeks should be a "heavyweight final bout" that could generate more public attention and possibly higher-than-usual voter turnout.
